Based on a qualitative assessment of cultivation trends, the Winter Assessment in the north and northeast of Afghanistan predicts a strong increase in opium cultivation for 2011. However, taking into account the results of phase 1 of the Winter Assessment, overall cultivation in the whole country is expected to decreased slightly. The result of this assessment indicates that the current high price of opium may lead to an increase in opium cultivation in Badakhshan, Baghlan and Faryab provinces. Baghlan and Faryab provinces were poppy-free in 2010. The increase in poppy cultivation in Baghlan and Faryab provinces may lead to the loss of their poppy-free status if poppy eradication is not implemented. The remaining provinces in the north and north-eastern regions, which were poppy-free in 2010, are expected to remain so in 2011.