Current emissions reductions proposals in the lead-up to cop-15 are likely to be insufficient to stabilize atmospheric CO2 levels: using C-roads – a simple Computer simulation of climate change – to support long-term climate policy Development

As an example of the utility of this computer simulation model for informing policy makers, other leaders, and the public about progress within the UNFCCC negotiations leading up to COP-15 (Copenhagen, Denmark, December 2009) using C-ROADS to analyze the expected long-term impacts on the climate of proposals currently being put forth by national and regional governments. Our results show that these proposals – even if fully implemented – would be far from sufficient to meet the goals of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 levels at or below 450 ppm (reaching ~ 730 ppm by 2100) or limiting warming to 2°C over pre-industrial temperatures (reaching ~4°C by 2100 (at the central estimate of climate sensitivity of the IPCC. Full report in PDF format: Pages: 12p