Subject: Current status of Monsoon 2012 and Forecast for next one week.



Highlights of the last week

 IMD in its weekly press release issued last Friday i.e. 29 June, 2012 forecasted advance of monsoon over some more parts of central India and northwest India during second half of the week. During 3-6 July, southwest monsoon has advanced over many parts of central and northwest India covering many parts of Gujarat, remaining parts of Madhya Pradesh, most
parts of Uttar Pradesh, entire Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir and some parts of Haryana, Punjab and east Rajasthan.

Rainfall during the week (28 June to 04 July)\

IMD in its weekly press release issued on 29th June, 2012 forecasted increase in rainfall activity over central India during first half of the week and also over east and northwest India during second half of the week. There has been good rainfall activity over Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra during first half which extended over to
Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, east Rajasthan, Bihar, Jharkhand during second half of the week.
However, during this week, rainfall over the country as a whole was still 49% below long period average (LPA) with more rainfall over central India and south Peninsula as compared to last week

Out of 36 meteorological sub-divisions, rainfall was excess/normal in 09, deficient in 11 and scanty in 16 sub-divisions during he week. In area-wise distribution, 21% area of the country received excess/normal rainfall. Remaining 79% area received deficient/scanty rainfall.




June Month Rainfall Scenario

The cumulative seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole from 1- 30 June has been 29% below LPA with below normal rainfall over the all the four homogenous regions except east & northeast India, where it is near normal. Details of Meteorological Sub-divisionwise cumulative rainfall in June are given in the annexure III.
Seasonal Rainfall Scenario (1 June -04 July) For the country as a whole, seasonal rainfall during this year’s monsoon has
so far upto 04 July been 30% below the LPA.

Current meteorological conditions as on 06 July, 2012

o An off shore trough at mean sea level runs from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast.
o An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over central parts of Uttar Pradesh and
extends upto 4.5 km above mean sea level.
o Another cyclonic circulation lies over Jharkhand & adjoining Orissa and extends
upto mid tropospheric levels tilting southwest wards with height.
o An upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Punjab & neighbourhood in lower
levels.
o A trough at mean sea level runs from Punjab to eastcentral Bay of Bengal across Haryana, south Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal.

Forecast for next one week (07 July- 13 July)

o Rainfall would occur at many places along the west coast, central & east India and northeastern states throughout the week.
o Rainfall would also occur at many places over Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand on many days of the week.
o Rain/thundershowers would occur at a few places over Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and east Rajasthan Gujarat region, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathawada, Telangana and north coastal Andhra Pradesh on many days of the week.
o Subdued rainfall would occur over the remaining parts of the country

Forecast for advance of Monsoon

Analysis of current meteorological parameters indicate favourable conditions for further advance of Southwest Monsoon into Delhi, some more parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab and in remaining parts of Uttar Pradesh during next 24 hours.
Conditions are also favourable for further advance of monsoon over some more parts of Gujarat and remaining parts of Haryana and Punjab during subsequent 48 hours.


Read in detail at :- http://www.cdrn.org.in/show.detail.asp?id=24828